Inflation rate (inflation rate), also known as the rate of price change, is the ratio of the excess currency to the actual amount of money needed to reflect the degree of inflation and currency depreciation.
The impact of inflation on exchange rate changes is also important.
European Central Bank forecasts euro zone inflation at 0.3% in 2020
The European Central Bank has predicted that real GDP in the euro area will shrink by 8% in 2020, with inflation rate of 0.3%.
The European Central Bank expects real GDP in the euro zone to grow by 5% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. In addition, the inflation rate in the euro area is expected to be 1% and 1.3% respectively in the next two years.
Christina Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said that the short-term inflation level in the euro area will remain low due to factors such as weak demand and the appreciation of the euro; with the recovery of market demand in the medium term and the role of easing policies, the eurozone will face upward inflationary pressure.
Bulgaria's annual inflation rate is expected to slow to 0.8% by the end of the year
According to the prediction of Bulgaria's central bank, the country's economy may shrink by about 8.5% in 2020, with the most serious up to 13%.
Affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the second quarter of 2020 has witnessed the most severe recession in the history. The possibility of maintaining this year's GDP is between - 4.1% and - 13.1%, and it is most likely to shrink by 8.5%. The main reason is that consumption and investment are shrinking and exports are weakening.
According to the analysis, from 2021 to 2022, economic activities will gradually recover, and by the end of 2020, the real GDP will return to the level of 2019. During this period, strong growth in private consumption, commodity exports and public investment will make the greatest contribution to economic growth. It is expected that by the end of 2020, the annual inflation rate will significantly slow down to 0.8%, accelerate to 1.4% by the end of 2021, and maintain a similar level in 2022 as in 2021.
Estonia became the euro zone's biggest deflationary country in August
According to Eurostat's quick estimate, the annual inflation rate in the euro zone fell 0.6 percentage points in August to - 0.2%. The deflation rate of Estonia is 1.2%, which is the most serious in the euro area, second only to Greece and Cyprus, with 2.1% and 2.9% respectively. According to quick estimates, Slovakia and Lithuania have the highest inflation rates of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively.
Judging from the main factors of inflation in the euro area, food, alcohol and tobacco are expected to grow at the highest annual rate of 1.7% in August, compared with 2% in July, followed by the service industry with 0.7% and 0.9% in July. The inflation rate of non energy industrial products is expected to be - 0.1%, from 1.6% in July; energy is expected to be - 7.8% and - 8.4% in July.
The main objective of the European Central Bank's monetary policy is to maintain inflation below but close to 2% in the medium term.
Singapore's core inflation rate fell to a 10-year low in July
Singapore's core inflation rate fell to - 0.4% in July, the lowest since January 2010, as electricity and gas prices fell and food prices fell.
Singapore's core inflation fell, mainly due to the reduction in electricity charges last month, which further widened the decline in electricity and gas prices, from 3.9% in June to 15.2%. At the same time, although the inflation of food services remained generally stable, the price of non cooked food fell, resulting in the decrease of food inflation from 2.3% to 2.2%.
As for the next inflation trend, analysts generally believe that as consumer demand is still weak and the recovery of international tourism is far away, Singapore is expected to struggle to get rid of the pressure of deflation this year.
India's overall inflation rate remained high in the second quarter
The Central Bank of India recently said in its annual report 2019-2020 that the year 2019-2020 is the worst performance of India's economy since the global financial crisis. Due to the severe impact of the epidemic on consumption and the heavy blow to the poor, it may take a long time for India's economy to recover to the level before the epidemic, and the real GDP growth in this fiscal year will be revised down to 5%.
India's overall inflation rate is likely to remain high in the second quarter, but it is expected to slow down in the second half of this year with the help of curbing the epidemic and economic policies, according to the report of the Central Bank of India.
According to data released this month by the Central Bureau of statistics, India's CPI was 6.93% in July, exceeding the upper limit of the 6% medium-term maximum inflation target set by the Central Bank of India, with an annual rate of 9.64%. In addition, food prices in India continued to rise in August, slightly lower than the food inflation rate of 9.62% in July, but the food inflation rate is still at a high level of 9.05%.
Ukraine's annualized inflation rate reached 2.5% in August
According to the statistics office of Ukraine, in August, consumer prices in Ukraine continued to decline by 0.2% after falling by 0.6% in July, and the annualized inflation rate reached 2.5%. In August, Ukraine's core inflation rate was 0.1% and the annual core inflation rate was 1.5%.
The Ministry of economic development, trade and agriculture of Ukraine adjusted the inflation forecast for 2020 to 5.9% in the social and economic development forecast of Ukraine from 2021 to 2023. In the forecast of the previous three months, the annual inflation rate was 11.6%. According to the latest forecast, the average annual exchange rate of hryvna in 2020 will be 27 hryvna / USD (previously predicted as 29.5 hryvna / USD), and the exchange rate at the end of the year will be 28.3 hryvna/usd.
Kazakhstan's inflation rate fell to 7% in August
Kazakhstan's annualized inflation rate fell to 7% in August from 7.1% last month, central bank governor dosayev said at a government meeting a few days ago.
According to the financial industry association of Kazakhstan, Fitch, an international rating agency, predicts that in 2020, Kazakhstan's inflation rate will reach 9%, GDP will decline by 2%, current account deficit will reach 4.5% of GDP, and consolidated fiscal deficit will reach 6.1% of GDP.
Previously, Fitch maintained Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating as "BBB" and its rating outlook as "stable".
Iran's annual inflation rate was 25.8% in August
The consumer price index (CPI) for the year ending August 21 (the past 12 months) rose by 25.8% compared with the same period in the previous fiscal year, according to the Iranian statistical center. As of July 21, the figure was 26.4%. CPI rose by 30.4% in the same month (July 22 to August 21) and 26.9% last month (June 22 to July 21).
The overall CPI based on March 2017 was 235.9, an increase of 3.5% over the previous month. The annual inflation rates in urban and rural areas were 25.9% and 25.4% respectively; the CPI in urban and rural areas increased by 30.6% and 29.6% respectively. Among the 12 categories of CPI, "furniture, household appliances and their maintenance" had the highest month on month increase of 5.9%, "food and beverage" was 3.5%, "health and treatment" and "communication" had the lowest month on month increase of 1.7%. Compared with the previous year, the highest monthly growth rate was "transportation", accounting for 65.1%; food and beverage was 25.8%; and the lowest was "communication", which was 12.5%.
Kyrgyzstan's inflation rate was 2.5% from January to July
According to the data of Kyrgyz National Statistical Committee, from January to July 2020, the inflation rate of Kyrgyzstan is 2.5%, in which the prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks increase by 4.9%, and the prices of non food commodities decrease by 0.8%.
Tanzania's inflation rate is the lowest in the EC
According to the data of Tanzania's National Bureau of statistics, Tanzania's inflation was 3.3% in July, slightly higher than 3.2% in June, but it is still the lowest among the East Asian Community countries.
Uganda's Bureau of statistics showed that its inflation rate was 4.7% in July, up from 4.1% in June. Kenya's Bureau of statistics showed that its inflation rate was 4.36% in July, slightly lower than 4.59% in June.
The impact of inflation
Rising prices: more money chasing limited goods.
Cost rise: the cost of raw materials and labor has to meet the necessary survival needs due to the rising price of commodities.
Savings decline: prices continue to rise, bank interest rates are not enough to resist inflation, the willingness to save declines, and capital flows to other investment products (assets).
Currency devaluation: currency over issuance will lead to devaluation of domestic currency, frustration of import-oriented enterprises and export-oriented income.
The economic risk increases: if inflation continues for a long time, it is definitely a bad thing. But if the medium and short term is conducive to economic development. The premise is that the distribution of new money is reasonable and the financial leverage is in a controllable degree (which is difficult to achieve).
A normal period of inflation indicates prosperity and low unemployment. If the inflation rate is too low, the biggest danger is that it can.