The second half of the Chinese economy: activate effective demand triggers a strong rebound
China Economic Times: Although external uncertainties are increasing, the domestic economy is recovering strongly. What are the positive factors for China's economy in the future?
On the premise that the positive economic growth throughout the year is basically certain in China, the Chinese economy will show more enthusiasm and certainty factors in the second half of the year.
One, the direction that needs to recover in the second half of the year can be determined. Although the recovery of domestic demand is obviously not as good as the supply, it will take time for demand to recover, but the trend of recovery is clear. It is expected that consumption and investment will gradually improve in the second half of the year, but will not rebound sharply. The overall performance will be "tepid."
There will be no retaliatory consumption, and consumption will still recover moderately. There will be no retaliatory consumption in the second half of the year. First, the epidemic will have a serious impact on outdoor consumption, the second is the impact of the epidemic on employment, and the third is that my country's rescue policy provides little support for families and individual residents. As the epidemic subsides and production and life return to normal, the recovery of consumption in the second half of the year can be expected. Consumer varieties may differentiate: the consumption of products related to the fight against the virus, such as medicine, disinfectant, and toiletries, has grown rapidly; daily necessities, electronic products, etc. Consumer staples that are less affected by the epidemic have recovered quickly; consumption related to the real estate and automobile industry chains has gradually improved; service consumption has recovered slowly, especially consumption of catering, tourism, and hotels may experience negative growth throughout the year.
Investment should focus on new infrastructure. After the epidemic is over, the sales of excavators across the country have increased substantially, and the growth of infrastructure investment and real estate development investment will also accelerate accordingly. It is estimated that the investment in infrastructure for the whole year will increase by 8%. Fiscal and monetary policies focus on targeted support, and infrastructure investment focuses on new infrastructure. Traditional infrastructure investment will also accelerate, but the intensity may be limited. Declining market interest rates and falling financing costs for real estate companies may support the gradual acceleration of real estate development investment. The lack of real estate speculation indicates that real estate control policies will not be loosened, which will restrict the growth rate of real estate development investment growth, which is expected to increase by 5% for the whole year. Investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing is growing well, but the weakening of external demand will have a greater impact on export-oriented manufacturing. The investment prospects of traditional manufacturing are poor, and business pressure will increase and profits will narrow, which will seriously affect manufacturing. Industry investment expectations. The negative growth trend of manufacturing investment may continue for a period of time, and is expected to increase by -4% for the whole year; investment growth for the whole year is about 3.1%.
Second, the goal of 9 million new jobs for the whole year is certain to be achieved. Affected by the epidemic, the number of new jobs in cities and towns across the country has decreased significantly since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has been higher than the level of the past few years. With the obvious acceleration of resumption of work and production and targeted support from policies, it is relatively certain to complete the government's goal of 9 million new jobs throughout the year: First, provide key employment support for key groups to ensure new jobs. This year, the number of college graduates reached 8.74 million. This year and the next two years, we will continue to provide employment services for college graduates. In addition, we must effectively implement the resettlement policy for veterans. The employment of these two key groups will be guaranteed. There is a solid foundation for employment of 9 million people. The second is to focus on supporting small and micro enterprises to reduce unemployment. Small and micro enterprises are the main force in employment. Accelerating the implementation of various fiscal and financial preferential assistance policies and stabilizing existing jobs will also play an important role in solving the employment problem. The third is to develop emerging industries to promote flexible employment. The emergence of new economies and new business formats has spurred the rapid growth of "flexible employment" personnel, which undoubtedly expands unlimited space and important support for stable employment, and plays an important role in solving temporary difficulties in employment and promoting income growth. The fourth is to increase training and expand the number of recruits to ease employment pressure while improving the quality of labor. Vocational skills training exceeded 35 million people, higher vocational colleges expanded the enrollment of 2 million, the number of graduate students enrolled for the first time exceeded one million, and the number of recruitment positions in institutions at all levels across the country increased significantly.
Third, the direction of reform acceleration is clearer. The current internal and external environment facing China is complicated. The central government recently issued the "Opinions on Building a More Perfect Factor Market Allocation System and Mechanism" and "Opinions on Accelerating the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System in the New Era", which is undoubtedly important for China to deepen reforms in the future. Programmatic document. In the future, reforms in areas including land, population, capital, technology, and data elements will be accelerated. Provide confidence to the market in the short term, promote the growth of domestic demand, and effectively respond to the impact of the epidemic on demand. In the medium and long term, it can release total factor productivity and increase the potential growth rate of China's economy. According to estimates, the reform of the marketization of land elements alone can bring tens of trillions of yuan in wealth value, and the advancement of other element reforms will surely create greater wealth. This also shows that reforms can indeed release the growth potential of China's economy to a large extent and enhance China's own ability to respond to changes in the external environment.
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