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Experts warn of the economic risks after the epidemic

Experts warn of the economic risks after the epidemic

Issue Time:2020/07/20
Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase China, said that from global average data, fiscal policy this year has increased by an average of 3.5% compared with last year, which has exceeded the fiscal stimulus during the 2009 global financial crisis. China has also adopted very active fiscal and monetary policies.

"The epidemic has brought economic shocks, and countries have introduced huge financial relief measures. In the short term, disaster relief is understandable, but we must objectively and clearly understand the impact of these measures on the finances of various countries. But behind this, we need to be vigilant about fiscal The risks brought by the rescue policy.” Sun Mingchun, chief economist of Haitong International, said that some “internal injuries” may erupt in different areas in the future. The short-term cause of the epidemic is the economic recession caused by the public health crisis, but it may also bring about With a series of greater shocks, the economy may be in a long recession. Many internal injuries in the financial sector have not been exposed. Once exposed, the financial sector will cause another shock to the real economy.

Zhu Haibin said that after the global financial crisis, the global debt level has been in a straight-up process, and the future economic restoration needs to pay attention to the debt problem. Historically speaking, the higher the debt level, or even after a certain level, is basically very unlikely to return. It is inevitable that very low interest rates will be maintained for a very long time, and debt will be transferred from non-government sector debt to government sector debt. From a longer-term perspective, if everyone keeps stimulating fiscal policy, will it induce a disintegration like the Bretton Woods system after the Great Depression or the 1970s? Or will the current national credit currency dominated by the US dollar undergo a re-anchorage process? These are all huge challenges that we may face in the future.
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